China doesn’t have a contingency plan to enter North Korea in case there is sudden turmoil, because the superpower will continue to provide aid to the impoverished country and keep it from imploding, making the need for such a plan unwarranted from the beginning, a South Korean scholar has claimed. Korea Times 14 July 2009
Horseshit…
Either that or the Chinese government is being terribly negligent in doing its duty.
I am dead set against putting US troops into the North on anything but an absolute necessity to do so — but — the US government damn sure had better have at least some type of plan for such a contingency. They had better have put some thought into it.
That is what the governments of powerful nations are supposed to do.
Maybe China has no intention of sending troops into the North. Maybe it has decided that is the last thing it will do —- (I seriously doubt it, but I’m just saying – maybe) —- but it has an obligation, a mandate to lay down on paper how such a move might be undertaken to achieve the best results.
Understandably, when a contingency happens in North Korea, the country that suffers the most is North Korea, followed by China.
“So, these two countries share a strong degree of common ground to prevent the contingency from materializing,” said Han.
Uh…I think SK would rank second here. I can’t even realistically picture a situation in which the North collapsing would lead it to attack China, but it is very possible for the South…
Next, even if the game plan is to do all it can to prevent the contingency, the government still has the obligation to plan for such a contingency…
‘”In the past, they were providing free economic aid. But these days, China is keener to have Chinese firms invest in North Korea.” On the North Korean side, he said, it reportedly abolished residence restrictions for Chinese businessmen. All this indicates that China and North Korea are preparing for a “long-term” future.
Well, yeah… Who could imagine they’d sit around the table and say, “We’d like to make plans for the future, but we’re (you’re) going to collapse within two years so let’s forget about these economic ties…
You might could say that China putting “long term investment” into the North is so foolhardy it would not do so unless it believed long term success is achievable.
But…not really. China’s primary motivation is to keep the North alive. “Investments” is just one way to do that. They don’t have to actually believe the investments will pay off in the end…
…and if they do…Beijing must be pretty stupid and very blind about its own history: When China and the Soviet Union made North Korea start at least bartering for the material wealth those two nations had been sinking into their Cold War ally, they both showed they understood they were throwing good money after bad.
I give China more credit than having forgotten that past. I doubt the have any illusions about how well their material gifts are going to be used wasted…
Meanwhile, analysts believe the single most important factor that would require any contingency operation in North Korea is the death of Kim Jong-il. Given that North Korea is run like a monarchy, some predict that there will be bloodshed among the three princes in their jockeying for the crown when the king is no longer present.
Han dismisses this view. He believes that North Korea has been preparing for this obvious contingency well in advance, and China, which has been carefully monitoring the internal situation in North Korea, also feels confident that there will be “orderly regime maintenance" even after Kim’s death.
Some proof or examples would be nice here, because – if we compare things to how Kim Jong-Il was groomed and maneuvered into the top spot, you can say with sincerity that Kim Il-Sung and crew had been “preparing for this obvious contingency.”
Not so much for Jong-Il’s replacement…We’ve heard a note or two here and there but nothing like the process he went through to assure his position at the top once his father died.
“Furthermore, Kim’s death is not an overnight event, but is something that the rest of the world, including China, has been closely monitoring and following up. And when the outside world talks about contingency, and that has been for more than 10 years, it’s commonsense to expect that there is movement inside to prevent such a contingency from happening,” he said.
???
Seeing how other nations are planning for a possible collapse of the North once Kim dies means NK is surely carrying out plans that will prevent that from happening?
OK – but that is supposed to mean something here?
Of course NK is making moves and plans to prevent collapse and have a smooth transition of power —— how the heck couldn’t they?
But when does the fact NK is making such an effort become a convincing argument that collapse is impossible or highly unlikely during the change in power???
Like other analysts, Han believes that China’s posture on North Korea is complex and contradictory. “As China is integrating into international society and projecting the image of a responsible state holder, it knows that supporting a regime like North Korea doesn’t make sense in many ways. It doesn’t go well with the positive image that China wants to show to the world. So, it didn’t have a choice but to support the U.N. resolution to punish North Korea. But then, it doesn’t want to see North Korea collapse either. So, it has two conflicting attitudes on North Korea.”
Now that is sensible.
But, like I stated above, I bet China’s primary contradictory stance on the North is that it knows it is throwing good money after bad – instead of fretting about looking bad in the world community – but believes it has no alternative but to sink more wealth into that sucking black hole…
